Sometimes velocity looks like it goes up and down a lot. One sprint you get 20 points, the next you get 40 then the next you get 30. It is normal for a team's velocity to bounce around- especially in newly formed teams. As a tem matures this will smooth out but never completely.
There are many things that contribute to this fluctuation in velocity. Holidays and planned vacations are the easiest to understand. Of course if someone on the team plans to be out for part of a sprint the team is going to plan to deliver fewer points that when the full team is available. Illness is a more difficult thing to plan for but rarely does someone being out sick for a day during the sprint cause too much of a problem. The rest of the team can usually cover for them and when they get better they can work to catch up. These are reasons why no matter how high performing a team is you will always see some fluctuation in velocity.
The worst reason for velocity fluctuation is a failed sprint. This is more common in a new team. Poorly written and poorly planned stories cause sprints to fail.
Ok, so velocity is all over the place- that seems to mean that velocity doesn't mean anything. Why bother tracking it?
Simple... velocity is not 100% stable from sprint to sprint. Over time though the velocity of a team averages out and gives you a good way of measuring the team's output and predicts how much work will get accomplished. The more a team matures the easier it is to estimate velocity. You will learn that when someone is out for half the sprint you lose a certain number of points. This information can easily be used to predict when a release will be ready with all of the features the product owner wishes to release.
Remember, it is the average velocity over time that is important, not the velocity of any 1 single sprint. Even an occasional failed sprint isn't the end of the world. More times than not the points missed will cause the next sprint's velocity to be higher than normal. The average is pretty steady- even in a new team that fails a lot you can still use this to predict output over time.
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